Sunday, 25 December 2011

Frailty, thy name is more and more of us


Daniel Dreuil, a geriatrician, and Dominique Boury, a Medical Ethics specialist, both from Lille in Northern France, gave a paper to the Fourth International Congress on Ethics in Strasbourg in March 2011. They started by talking of the case of Mrs B., an 87-year old recently admitted to an Accident and Emergency department:

She had spent the night on the bathroom floor following a fall. She had suffered three other falls in the previous six months, two of which had led to hospital admissions. Her poor eyesight and arthritis meant that she was at risk of falling again. On arrival at A&E, Mrs B was suffering from confusion: she no longer knew where she was , was unaware of the date or time, dozed during the day and tossed and turned at night, was suffering from anxiety and cried out when she was not depressed, complaining that money was being stolen from her and that hospital staff were trying to harm her. Though she had been widowed two years earlier, she claimed that her husband was going to fetch her and take her away. Her clinical, lab and radiological examination suggested early stage dehydration.

She was referred to Care of the Elderly where the dehydration was treated; the confusion increased and lasted a week, before receding rapidly. She had fortunately avoided a fracture on this occasion, but had to be referred for rehabilitation since the fall had affected her ability to walk: she was displaying symptoms of ‘post-fall syndrome’, specifically retropulsion when walking – she would lean backwards – which threw her off balance and made her very apprehensive as soon as she stood up. It would take her several weeks of rehabilitation to become a little more sure of herself.

During her six-week stay, a memory assessment revealed incipient Alzheimer’s disease. On her return home, a new treatment regime was put in place for Mrs B., an intensified programme of domiciliary care and home-based rehabilitation to master walking again. She is being monitored by a home care network coordinated by her GP and is due to see a neurologist. In retrospect, Mrs B talks of her fall and her admission to hospital as a traumatic event, as a ‘collapse’.

Dreuil and Boury gave this case study as a striking example of a condition known as frailty. It was an eye-opener to me, as I hadn't previously come across it, though it has been known about for decades and has been attracting increasing attention in recent years. Intermediate between good health and incapacity, it is a state in which a person is coping reasonably well with life but can be plunged through a relatively insignificant event into a state, to use Mrs B.’s own word, of collapse, characterised by multiple simultaneous pathologies: Mrs B had multiple physical conditions, some related to her fall, some to other diseases such as arthritis or the incipient Alzheimer’s, but was also suffering from mental difficulties, specifically confusion and depression.

The event that had precipitated her difficulties was a fall, from her own height. In a completely healthy individual, that is unlikely to have any serious consequences  bruising or simply a little pain, at worst a sprain  perhaps the most serious consequence would be the hurt pride caused by the laughter and mockery or our so-called loved ones. But in a frail individual, the effect can be devastating.

From being able to cope, Mrs B. was plunged into a condition where she could no longer manage her life at home. As well as healthcare, she needed social services far more intensively: domiciliary visits for now, but with the prospect of residential care clearly on the horizon and increasingly imminent.

This is a French example, but precisely the same type of case is common, and indeed increasingly common, in Britain and other nations. And certainly frailty is a condition that is being met throughout the wealthier nations more and more frequently – and for the very best of reasons: although it can affect people of any age it is much more likely to afflict the old, as is the case of Mrs B., and more and more of us are living to increasing old age. That great success of nutrition, of social care and above all of healthcare, is creating new healthcare challenges – and frailty is one of the most significant.

Now let us look back at my previous post in this series. It compared two women of 61 and 62, both of whom had suffered strokes, but one of whom had been discharged from hospital very quickly. I focused on the other, and by looking at her earlier record of treatment in both healthcare and social care, saw that she was suffering from multiple conditions that had caused her to be treated repeatedly in hospital and to require significant levels of domiciliary and residential care.

Doesn’t that sound similar to Mrs B.’s case? Though the conditions were different and the 62-year old stroke patient was far younger, don’t we again see many of the symptoms of frailty? Ill in multiple ways, undergoing repeated treatment of many different kinds. This feels like a woman who had been in a frail condition and has now been precipitated into a state of collapse.

Understanding her case, as we saw, meant bringing information together from many different sources: admitted patient care, outpatient attendances, inpatient stays, community treatment in or out of hospital, domiciliary care provided by social services or residential care.

The concept of frailty has been a bit of an eye-opener to me. But the message I take it from it is one that I’ve stressed again and again in these occasional posts: we need to monitor patients over the long term and we need to do it across care settings, so that we understand what is happening to the patient in the many different areas of care he or she encounters.

A frail person suffering a collapse will need care provided by many different specialties and professions. If the patient is to get the most of out of it, and society is to deliver care in the most cost-effective way, we need to understand what they are all doing and to ensure that their efforts are coordinated as fully as possible.

Frailty: in information terms it just means that it is more urgent than ever to break down data silos.

Friday, 26 August 2011

A tale of two stroke patients

It’s been a while since I last put up a blog here. My only excuse is that I’ve been so heavily involved in doing healthcare information that I’ve not had enough time to talk about it.

In particular I’ve been working on what remains as much as ever my hobby horse, pathways. So I thought it might be interesting to give an example of one. Or rather two. 

Two women, one aged 61 and the other 62, both had emergency hospital admissions for strokes. The first woman’s hospital stay only lasted a night, which meant it incurred just a short stay emergency charge of about £1400, but the second stayed four nights and cost £4400.


So the obvious issue is – why was there such difference between them?

The first place to look is among the secondary diagnoses recorded for both women.

The short-stay case, primary and secondary diagnoses

CodeDiagnosis
I639Cerebral infarction, unspecified
I251Atherosclerotic heart disease
I248Other forms of acute ischaemic heart disease
G409Epilepsy, unspecified
Z867Personal history of diseases of the circulatory system

Diagnoses for the four-day case

CodeDiagnosis
I639Cerebral infarction, unspecified
I678Other specified cerebrovascular diseases
F329Depressive episode, unspecified
Z870Personal history of diseases of the respiratory system

To a non-clinician like me at least, nothing springs out from this to explain the differences between the two cases. And that’s the problem with focusing exclusively on a single event in this way, in this case on the hospital spell: it gives much too limited a view of the patients’ real experience.

The picture changes fundamentally if we take a longer view. We don’t have information about the GP care of these two women, but we do know about all their treatment in acute hospitals, in community hospitals, in community health services, even in social care. So let’s take a look at what happened to them both in the period leading up to their strokes.

For the patient who was in for a day after the stroke, the only care we know about over the previous eighteen months were two outpatient attendances in Cardiology. It seems that she must have shown symptoms of a developing heart problem, but nothing serious enough to justify further hospital treatment. Ten months after the second outpatient clinic, she attended A&E followed her stroke and was admitted for emergency treatment.

With the other patient, on the other hand, the picture could hardly be more different. Below is the pathway of just six months before her stroke (drawn to the scale of the lengths of each event):


The poor woman has been through a real catalogue of misfortunes:
  1. She was admitted for an acute myocardial infarction five months before the stroke
  2. A month later she was in for a pulmonary embolism
  3. She had a great deal of care in the community, including physio, occupational health as well as district nursing
  4. She was taken into residential care
  5. Despite the care she was receiving, she had four more emergency admissions for respiratory or suspected cardiac symptoms over a period of about a month some three months before the stroke.
  6. She then had her stroke
All we need is to move away from our focus on a single acute event and look instead at the whole pathway of her care, to understand that we are talking about two profoundly different cases. This woman is simply far more ill, in a state similar to what is referred to as frailty’ in older patients: any problem, even a small one, can lead to a string of others, some far more serious.
So there’s absolutely nothing surprising about the fact that she needed a longer stay in hospital after the stroke. In fact, it’s now clear that while the stroke was a major event in the history of the other woman, for this one it was just the latest in a series of severe problems. If we wanted to take a look at ways of making her care more effective, or more cost-effective, it might not even be with the stroke event that we’d start (after all, she was in hospital for 25 days after the myocardial infarction).
All it takes to get this much richer and, I’m sure you’ll agree, much more valuable view of the patient’s healthcare is to take a pathway view. And all that needs is to get hold of the data and string it together...

Sunday, 20 March 2011

Counting the deaths that count

According to the American columnist H L Mencken, ‘there is always a well-known solution to every human problem – neat, plausible, and wrong.’

For example, in assessing efficiency of healthcare, nothing is simpler or more plausible than to measure length of stay. So we’ve had countless studies comparing hospitals on the basis of ‘average’ (i.e. mean) length of stay. A particular hospital may have a mean value of, say, 4.8 against 4.5 for a peer group. That difference becomes the basis for the conclusion that if there are 80,000 inpatient stays, the hospital could save 24,000 days and close some eye-watering number of beds. All this is advanced without a thought as to whether a mean value is even appropriate for a measure like length of stay, which is usually distributed with a very long tail (small numbers of patients with massively long stays, usually due to the complexity of their condition), or whether a difference of 0.3 is even significant.

In case anyone thinks this is a wild exaggeration, we’ve seen a hospital rebuilding programme that took this kind of analysis as the basis for calculating its required number of beds, and paid the price when it discovered that the new building had far too few. 

In addition, we need to ask whether this kind length of stay analysis even compares like with like. We’ve seen comparisons with peer groups which confidently predict efficiency savings, only to find on closer examination that the hospital treats a sub-group of complex patients that the peer group doesn't. Careless analysis can lead to bad and costly conclusions.

If length of stay taken in isoloation is the simple, plausible and wrong measure of efficiency, the equivalent in the field of care quality is mortality. Now, there’s no denying that the patient’s death is not a desirable outcome. Keeping mortality down is an obvious step in keeping quality up. There are however two problems with the measure.

The first is that there are huge areas of hospital care in which mortality is simply too low to be useful as a blunt comparative measure. Mortality in obstetrics has now fallen to such a level, for example, that it would be perfectly possible to find just two deaths in an entire year in one hospital, and one in another. To conclude that the first delivers care that is 100% poorer than the second would be a conclusion that can only really be described as rash. Or, as Mencken would no doubt have told us, plain wrong.

That is not to say that these individual deaths shouldn’t be monitored and investigated: rare events such as a maternal mortality or, say, death following a straightforward elective procedure should be thoroughly investigated. It's simply that they cannot in isolation form the basis of an overall assessment of one hospital's care quality compared to another.

Again, don’t think that this is a wild exaggeration – we know of reports suggesting poor performance by a clinician, based on comparisons as meaningless as these. And we’ve argued before that the use of crude mortality figures in analysing Mid Staffs hospital distorted the debate. We don't of course mean that there were no quality problems at Mid Staffs: there were and it was appropriate to address them.

Interestingly these problems were highlighted by patients and relatives some time before various organisations began to raise any issues. Unfortunately, once information analysis began to appear, it focused on mortality data and drew conclusions from the figures which they couldn't properly support. Many of the problems at mid-Staffs were on wider quality issues that the patients identified but weren't measured or when highlighted did not appear to be investigated. 

The temptation to make mortality a focus is understandable. It's a measure that's easy to obtain because hospitals routinely record their deaths. So it's natural to want to tot them up and convince ourselves that we then have a valid measure of comparison.

Well, do we? Here we come up to the second objection to mortality as an idicator. Let's start by taking another look at length of stay. If a hospital keeps patient stays short, might that not reflect a lot of early discharges, including perhaps a number of patients who go home and die there, with the result that they’re not included in the hospital’s death figures?

And what about transfers? If one hospital is transferring a high proportion of particularly ill patients to a tertiary referral centre, won’t its own mortality figures be artificially reduced while the receiving institution’s are inflated?

That’s why if you’re going to use mortality as a measure of quality, you need firstly to ensure that you’re applying it to specialties, conditions or procedures where it makes sense, and secondly that you’re measuring not just in-hospital mortality but also mortality after discharge, choosing a period beyond discharge that is appropriate to the patient's condition.

Now HES data has been analysed with Office of National Statistics death records linked to them, on an annual basis, for some years now – since about 2002. This means that since then it has been possible to take a look at mortality following hospital treatment in a much more comprehensive and useful way. What’s surprising is how few NHS and commercial providers have taken advantage of this information.

It’s not as though there haven’t been innovative thinkers who’ve used this kind of data to produce interesting conclusions. For example, we have the National Clinical and Health Outcomes Base (NCHOD) studies on 30-day mortality following emergency admissions for stroke. This has all the characteristics you’d want: an area of care – emergency strokes – for which mortality is a useful indicator, and the right measure, taking in much more than deaths in hospital.

As it happens, this analysis itself needs to be taken further. Mortality, like length of stay, is only one measure and can still mislead when used in isolation. It really needs to be supplemented by looking at indicators concerning the quality of the care itself. Useful measures have been proposed and are being used by the Royal College of Physicians, including the type of facility that treats the patients, the provision of thrombolysis and the effective monitoring of patients in the first few days of admission, all factors which improve the outcome of care. This is a subject to which we might return in a future post.

Using the Royal College of Physician indicators would improve the analysis. However, at least the figures published by the Department of Health back in 2002/3 showed a way forward towards a more rational use of mortality figures themselves. It's disappointing that eight years on so few have followed that promising lead. 

Perhaps we can start to catch up before the decade is over.